The intra-Southeast Asian market will become the fifth largest in the world by 2039, and the vast domestic and regional air-travel network across the region positions it well for a post-pandemic recovery, according to Boeing's 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO).
The CMO projects passenger traffic growth in Southeast Asia to grow by 5.7 percent annually throughout the forecast period. Through the period, Southeast Asia will become the second largest aviation market in the Asia-Pacific region after China.
Boeing projects the region's commercial airplane fleet will grow 5.3 percent annually over the next 20 years. In addition, demand for aftermarket commercial services -- valued at 790 billion dollars -- will help maintain the fleet over the same period.
"Southeast Asia's fundamental growth drivers remain robust. With an expanding middle-class and growth in private consumption, the region's economy has grown by nearly 70 percent over the last decade, which increases propensity to travel," said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. "In addition, governments in the region continue to recognize the travel and tourism sectors as important drivers of economic growth."
While near-term airplane deliveries are impacted as a result of the pandemic's effects, Boeing estimates operators will need more than 3,500 new single-aisle airplanes in the region by 2039.
Single-aisle airplanes like the 737 family will continue to drive capacity growth in Southeast Asia, where low-cost-carriers have the highest market penetration globally, the company said.
Globally, Boeing projects the need for 43,110 new commercial airplanes and the demand for aftermarket services to be equivalent to 9 trillion dollars over the next two decades. China is poised to become the largest passenger market in the next few years. Chinese airlines will require nearly 8,420 new passenger airplane deliveries over the next 20 years, the largest share of any country in the world.
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