China’s economy to remain stable in 2018

China’s economy to remain stable in the new year. Many analysts indicated that China’s economy will maintain stable operation. It is likely to continue the current stable growth and is expected to maintain a growth of about 6.7 percent.
 
China’s economy to continue booming
 
The latest official manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI for December 2017 continued expanding and 2017 ended with stable economic operation. Meanwhile, the strong PMI performance as a leading economic indicator indicated that the economy will continue booming this year.
 
Statistics released by Caixin Insight Group earlier this week show that Caixin manufacturing PMI came at 51.5 percent in December 2017, representing an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month and hitting a new high in four months. Meanwhile, the official manufacturing PMI maintained at the annual average of 51.6 percent.
 
Caixin PMI shows the economy recovers again. The significant growth in new orders and businesses show that manufacturers are optimistic about the economic prospects in 2018, indicated Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin Insight Group.
 
Analysts general believe that the economy will continue to see stable growth in 2018.
 
China’s economy will maintain stable growth. It is expected that the economic growth will be about 6.7 to 6.8 percent in the first quarter and the growth for the whole year may reach 6.7 percent, indicated Tang Jianwei, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications.
 
In the first quarter of 2017, China’s economy will maintain the growth in the fourth quarter, indicated Zhang Jun, chief economist with Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities. Driven by the global economic recovery and booming exports, consumption will remain the “stabilizer” for economic growth. The GDP growth is expected to maintain about 6.7 percent.
 
Quality improvement to speed up
 
“China will speed up in improving the quality of its economy,” indicated Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications at a press conference of the group on the prospects of China’s macro economy and finance in 2018 held yesterday.
 
Lian indicated that the improvement of the economic quality lies in the following aspects. Consumption will surpass investment in driving economic growth. The growth of the tertiary industry will surpass the secondary industry with new opportunities in service industries. The supply-side reform will promote the upgrading of industrial structures and improve the industrial concentration and efficiency. The rapid development of digital economy and “Internet plus” industries bring development opportunities to innovation-driven enterprises with leading technologies.
 
As consumption surpassed investment as the biggest driver to economic growth, China’s economic growth saw less quarterly fluctuation. The quarterly fluctuation of the economic growth from 2015 to 2017 has been about 0.1 percentage points. “The stable economic growth will continue in 2018,” indicated Lian. Despite certain downward pressures, the economic growth may slow down to certain extent, but a “hard landing” is not expected. It is not difficult to maintain an economic growth of over 6.5 percent in the following three years.
 
Zhang believed that the central economic work conference proposed to promote development with high quality. As a result, it will focus on deepening the supply-side reform and preventing systematic risks. It is expected that there will be more active factors in economic growth in the second quarter.
 
Translated by Star Zhang