The economy greatly rebounds at the end of this year. The growth rate of industrial production and consumption picked up in November, that for investment stabilized, and export growth rate rose from negative, which all show that China’s economy is clearly becoming stable and favorable, and it is sure for economy to keep stable growth in the fourth quarter.
The consumption increased 10.8 percent year on year in November, with growth rate 0.8 percentage point faster than that of last month; industrial added-value rose 6.2 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point quicker than last month; export growth rate turned into a growth of 5.9 percent in November from a decline of 3.4 percent last month, according to data on Dec. 13 of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
“Under a background that demands improve for real economy, production activities of industrial enterprises speed up”, Zhang Jun, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the SSN journalist.
Constant rebound of manufacturing PMI in the latest months has already proved the recovery of industrial economy. Due to modestly stabilizing demands home and abroad, the rebound for industrial production is likely to last, Zhang thought.
Additionally, investment has achieved a stable trend for a fourth straight month. Its growth was 8.3 percent for January to November, flat with that from January to October. Although investment growth slightly fell back in the real estate market, private and manufacturing investments having attracted much attention pick up one by one.
Data shows that private investment increased 3.1 percent year on year for January to November, with constant rebound for three months. After decline for four years continuously from 2011, the growth rate of manufacturing investment remarkably stabilizes at lows in the latest months, and its accumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to a low of 2.8 percent in August, and rebound constantly to 3.6 percent in November.
“No matter industrial situation or three drives, incentives to economic growth are stabilizing and picking up”, NBS press spokesman Mao Shengyong stated.
Based on main economic indicators now, factors supporting economic growth rate to touch the bottom obviously increase, it is expected to reach a level no less than 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter, and the whole-year growth rate may be slightly higher than 6.7 percent, Zhang Liqun, researcher at Development Research Center of the State Council, told the journalist in the interview.
In fact, economic “rebound” is shown more in structural optimization.
Mao provided a series of extremely-persuasive data in yesterday’s press conference: referring to internal situation of the industries, hi-tech industries representing transformation & upgrading direction increased 10.6 percent in November, 0.1 percentage point faster than growth rate of October; in terms of investment structure, manufacturing investment picked out 8.4 percent in November, 5.6 percentage points higher than October; regarding to consumption structure, commodity consumption based on upgrading continued to speed up its uptrend.
Although positive factors increase to support the economy, many analysts commonly thought that future economy will still face much pressure from difficulties and challenges.
The negative impact of adjustment & control policies on real estate market will gradually show in the second quarter of 2017, and meanwhile, infrastructure investment will weaken again in driving force; China’s economy will show weakness again at the end of the said second quarter, if the Fed raises the rate again in December as expected to cause great fluctuation for global economy, Zhang indicated.
Consumption growth rate also hides risk and concern. Its growth rebound in November was mainly pushed by automobile sales and constantly explosive growth of “11.11” promotion activities, but according to macro research team at Haitong Securities, along with high-base effect, it is hard for automobile sales to keep high-speed growth, falling end demands of real estate market have already negatively influenced sales of furniture, household appliances, building materials and etc., and overall consumption growth rate still faces decline risk in the future.
Therefore, it is still necessary to stabilize the growth while continuously promoting supply side reform in next year, analysts believed. Fiscal strength may be constantly reinforced to make achievements in PPP, infrastructure and other fields.
Translated by Jelly Yi
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