China's slowing growth is a natural result of the country's economic transformation, according to a number of China experts and investors in Brazil. China registered a growth rate of 6.9 percent last year, marking a 25-year low, amid a sluggish global economy, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Roberto Dumas, professor at the Brazilian business school Insper and a specialist on China, said that a growth rate below 7 pecent is not a sign of economic deterioration, but a reflection of adjustment measures by the Chinese government.
"China is moving in the right way, (with) lower growth but more consumption and with higher household income and better welfare," said Dumas. "Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government has realized the investment- and export-led growth of the past is unsustainable. So it has turned to a sounder model based on improving people's living standards." The Chinese government has adopted measures to strengthen the economy, such as raising wages and household income in order to boost consumption, and relaxing exchange rate controls to bolster confidence in its national currency. "This is the right way to proceed," Dumas said.
For the next decade, China expects to see less investment and slower growth at a rate of 4 to 5 percent, as it transforms into a consumption-driven economy fueled by higher wages. Dumas also said China' s scrapping of its one-child policy is also an effective way to facilitate economic transformation, as it could help improve people's quality of life by distributing the burden of supporting the elderly. "China' s determination to change its mode of economic development will contribute to the soft landing of its economy," he said.
In general, China's slowdown should not be regarded as a crisis, according to Dumas, but a process to "rebalance its economy." China's economy, the professor predicted, will experience a phase of slow growth, accompanied by a growing service sector, a slowdown in the growth of industrial production, and higher domestic consumption.
Joao Brandao, manager of the private equity and venture capital department at Pacific Investments in Brazil, said that "in the long run, China is still an ideal investment market." "With a transforming consumption-driven growth pattern, well-performing industrial companies can continue to expand their investment opportunities in China," Brandao added.
He pointed out that China's impact on emerging economies cannot be ignored, especially on countries dependent on natural resource exports, including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, Indonesia and South Africa. "China's slowing growth could exert a huge influence, even on developed countries that rely on resource exports, such as Australia," Brandao said. "But in the short term, companies and countries that produce and export animal and plant protein can still benefit from rising household income and growing consumption in China." However, Brandao warned that short-term investors in China's stock market should be more prudent. "China' s stock market will be affected by multiple factors in the short and medium term," Brandao said. "When the government strengthens regulations to further promote fairness and transparency, market turmoil is inevitable."
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