The future of the renewable energy industries in the United States appears to have been blurred in the current year of presidential election, as several presidential candidates have expressed strong opposition to existing policies on energy.
The United States, together with 174 other countries, signed a landmark climate deal recently at the U.N. headquarters in New York. Some observers say the event, which befell on the Earth Day, marked a climax of the Obama Administration's support to renewable energy. However, uncertainties regarding the future of the sector are increasing.
CLEAN POWER PLAN
The Clean Power Plan (CPP) is a major step taken by the Obama government in 2015 to fight climate change and promote renewable energy. It sets an ambitious target to cut U.S. power plants' emission of carbon dioxide by 32 percent by 2030, from the 2005 levels. The plan is expected to significantly improve the development of U.S. renewable energy.
The percentage of the electricity generated by renewable energy at the total U.S. electricity generation will increase from 13 percent in 2015 to 28 percent in 2030, according to official estimate. However, the CPP plan may fail as all Republican presidential candidates share strong opposition to the sweeping plan, according to a report issued last Friday by the League of Conservation Voters, an organization that supports pro-environment agenda.
The report found that Donald Trump suggested in 2015 he would abolish the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the government agency to implement the plan, if he becomes president. Senator Ted Cruz also voted twice to block the plan and Governor John Kasich said it must be scrapped. "It's not so easy (to change policies) even if you have a new president who is committed to repealing the clean power plan," said Mark Brownstein, vice president of the Climate and Energy Program at Environmental Defense Fund.
Brownstein said a new president cannot get rid of the CPP by just "waving a pen." He or she has to introduce a set of regulations to repeal the regulations that have already been adopted by the previous administration.
Sarah Ladislaw, director of the Energy and National Security Program in the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, agreed with Brownstein. She told Xinhua if the new government wants to introduce new regulations on emission cut, the possibility to get sued is high.
The CPP has been suspended following a February ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. Judges voted 5 to 4 to halt the extensive carbon reduction plan after 29 states launched a joint lawsuit to block it. The final decision over the case is expected to come by the end of this year.
There are always possibilities that the Supreme Court will strike down parts of the program or all of it, said Brownstein. However, as he sees it, the possibility is relatively low.
TAX CREDIT
In addition to the CPP, another major move by the Obama Administration to support renewable energy is last year's extension of tax credits for companies who invest in this area.
Tax credit is considered as one of the key factors driving U.S. renewable energy development, especially wind and solar power. However, as partisan fight intensifies over energy policies in recent years, extending tax credit for the renewable energy industries has become more and more difficult. In December 2015, in order to pass the government spending and tax breaks package for 2016, the Republicans and Democrats made a compromise on their energy policies.
Republicans realized their goal of lifting crude oil export ban that has lasted 40 years, and Democrats got enough support to extend production tax credit and investment tax credit for renewable energy to Dec. 31, 2019.
If a Democrat becomes president, the current renewable energy policy will continue, and if a Republican wins the general election the federal government will not implement those policies very strictly, which will also affect some states as their policies are packed with federal government's policy, said Ladislaw.
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