10-year development roadmap for new energy automobile confirmed

Economic Information Daily obtained part of details on new energy automobiles in technology roadmap of key fields under the “Made in China 2025” strategy, which shows that annual sales volume of China’s new energy automobiles will reach 20 percent of the total demands in automobile market up to 2025, with market share of over 80 percent for independent new energy automobiles; in order to realize such goal, the government will formulate independent innovation and development planning for new energy automobiles linking the industries, and issue constant and feasible supporting policies related to finance and tax.

Based on the roadmap, new energy automobiles are widely popularized in the fields of family cars, business vehicles, public buses, taxies, logistics transport and etc.; their annual sales volume will exceed 5 percent of the total demands in automobile market up to 2020, and round 20 percent to 2025. With China’s total carbon emission target and alternatives list of primary energies, proportion of annual sales volume of new energy automobiles will greatly increase up to 2030, with a scale of over 10 million vehicles.

The roadmap also shows that industrial system of new energy automobiles will preliminarily form up to 2020, with market as orientation and enterprises as main players connecting to industry, university and research. Annual sales volume of self-owned new energy automobiles will exceed 1 million vehicles, with market share of over 70 percent; popular vehicle models will be made, with the global sales volume ranking among the top 10; new energy buses will realize large-scale export, with average fault mileage of the whole vehicle of 20,000 km; key systems including power battery and driving motor will meet the international advanced level, reaching 80 percent of domestic market share.

The self-owned and controllable whole industrial chain will form up to 2025, and annual sales volume of new energy automobiles meeting international advanced level will reach 3 million vehicles, with its market share of over 80 percent; technical level of products will synchronize with international standard, with two first-class finished-vehicle enterprises, whose global sales volume ranks among the top 10 and overseas sales volume accounts for 10 percent of the total amount.

Zhang Junyi, the partner of Roland Berger automobiles, told the journalist that Chinese government always hopes to make breakthroughs in the whole automobile industry through the technologies of new energy automobiles, therefore, the concept of “corner overtaking” has been proposed.

At current stage, various foreign finished-vehicle enterprises do not rapidly promote new models of new energy automobiles, due to duration of existing procedures and technologies, which brings opportunities for China’s self-owned brands to play the leading role in this field, especially that Chinese government issues a large number of favorable policies, therefore, it is not surprised to see market share expectation of 80 percent.

Statistics shows that during the first half year of 2015, several ministries has launched nearly 10 policies encouraging new energy vehicle, including purchase tax reduction and exemption on new energy vehicles and vessels, and permission of market access of electric passenger car. In the second half year, more policies are introduced to support new energy car industry. At the end of September, executive meeting of the State Council determined a series of measures promoting the development of new energy car industry, including local authorities shall not impose restrictions on new energy car purchase, and those regions already implemented shall revoke. Recently, Central Office of the Stated Council issued Guidance on Accelerating the Construction of Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles, aiming to make rapid progress in charging posts.

Along with policy prop-up, the new energy car market this year has sustained explosive growth seen last year. Statistics from China Automotive Industry Association shows that the output of new energy automobiles totaled 144,284, with the sales volume of 136,733 from Jan. to Sept. during the year, representing a growth of 2 times and 2.3 times YoY , respectively. Based on the sales data for the first nine month, it is estimated that total sales volume of new energy vehicle this year is expected to reach 200,000.

In respect of technology roadmap for key areas, Made in China 2025 suggested that consistent policy support will be carried out for new energy car industry in the next ten years. “Government has begun to give policy support to new energy car industry from various levels. For example, subsidies, which granted by both the central and local governments, has not only been distributed to the research stage, but also the sales stage,” said Zhang Yijun. Besides, subsidies and supports to innovative industrial model have also been launched gradually; moreover, government has also made great efforts in pushing industry cooperation.

Zhang Yijun also pointed out that the estimated 20 percent market share taken by annual sales volume of new energy car by 2025 cannot simply be the result of policy promoting. It is suspicious that some regions and enterprises have swindled subsidies for new energy, which means the policy-dependent market cannot last for long. As new energy car technologies become more developed, policy will exit gradually. With emerging and increasingly mature foreign entrants, domestic brands’ competitiveness becomes a concern. Anyway, it depends on the joint efforts of enterprises and social capitals.