The outlook for China's residential property market in 2017 is stable, but regulatory risk remains high in light of the rapid growth in property and land prices, global rating agency Moody's said in a report Monday.
"We expect the growth in nationwide contracted sales -- in terms of sales value -- to be flat or slightly negative in 2017, against a high base of contracted sales value for 2016," said Kaven Tsang, Moody's vice president and senior credit officer.
"We estimate sales growth of around 25 percent year-on-year for the full year of 2016," Tsang added.
Tsang said that sales volumes will decline by around 5 to 10 percent in 2017 due to tightening measures implemented in major cities in September and October 2016, but the decline will be partly offset by a modest rise in sales prices.
Moody's said that a sharp decline in prices is unlikely in the next 6-12 months, given the relative low inventory levels in high-tier cities.
The government will seek to support more balanced development across the property market, given the sector's importance to economic growth.
"In addition, our rated developers' average reported gross margin will stabilize in 2017 due to reduced destocking pressures and improved selling prices, amidst the strong contracted sales achieved in the last 12-18 months," said Cindy Yang, a Moody's analyst.
Despite an expected slight tightening in mortgage financing and onshore bond markets in 2017, onshore liquidity will remain adequate in China, which will in turn support access to funding for developers and mortgage availability for home buyers, said the report.
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