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Early Bird 24-October-2016

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2016-10-24 12:49

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[Today's Guide]
○ Steam coal futures set new high since listing, efforts still on de-capacity
○ China Internet   Health Conference held, optical cable industry to bloom 
○ SMI Holding's proposal on merging Youngsun Investment approved, Actual controller of Sierte Fertilizer Industry changed
○ Est Tools plans to acquire Shangyou Cutters, Yichang Changjin affirms to seek for controlling right of Wuchangyu

[SSN Focus]
○ Steam coal futures set new high since listing, efforts still on de-capacity 

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The dominant contract of steam coal futures broke through the point of 600 yuan per tons on Oct. 21, and reached 619.6 yuan per tons at the highest during the night trading, a new high since the listing of such product. On the same day, authorities including National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to discuss a scheme to guarantee the energy supply for this winter and next spring. In terms of coal, the meeting stressed to rationally deal with relationship between de-capacity, supply guarantee and price stabilization. The raw coal output nationwide decreased 9.8 percent year on year in September, but the over-supply situation has not substantially changed yet, hence, it must be determined to reduce the capacity, report of China National Coal Association also shows. 

Comment: It means that launch of de-capacity policies is still the main task for coal industry. Actual coal output is lower than expectation, true demands are constantly higher than expectation, and the market inventory increases but is still at medium and low level, which pushes sudden hike in a short term; referring to long term, the industrial supply & demand is changing to balanced or slightly tight from easing, and profit of coal enterprises will obviously improve, institutions believed. Taking Jizhong Energy Resources Co., Ltd. (000937.SZ) as example, its performance forecast shows that its net profit of the first three quarters increased 4,337 percent to 4,929 percent year on year, and most of the profits come from the third quarter. There is a sign that reform of the central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is also speeding up. Coal asset management platform for the central SOEs with China National Coal Group Corp. and Shenhua Group Corporation Limited involved was established in July, and State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has also given a written reply on the issue of Shenhua Group proposing to take over the controlling right of Sdic Xinji Energy Co., Ltd. (601918.SH). 

[SSN Selection]
○ China Securities Regulatory Commission on Oct. 21 disclosed the first wave of cases for specialized law execution on IPO cheating issuance and illegal information disclosure, with five listed companies involved. 
○ China Banking Regulatory Commission recently issued a policy adjustment notice to ease the restriction that one province can set up only one provincial AMC, and allow these AMCs transfer non-performing assets to external institutions. 
○ The National Equities Exchange And Quotations starts to search for public opinions on detailed rules to stop listing on the Third Board, specifying that five types of companies shall be forced to terminate listing. 
○ The state-owned enterprises are expected to fulfill the task of reducing a steel capacity of 7.19 million tons within this month, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission on Oct. 22 indicated. 
○ The deficit of banks' foreign exchange settlement and sale reached 28.4 billion U.S. dollars in September, a new high since March; compared to currencies of other countries, the decline of CNY/USD rate was not big, State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicated. 
○ The U.S. telecom operator AT&T announced to acquire Time Warner Inc. (TWX.NYSE) with 85.4 billion U.S. dollars so as to step in media industry. 
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[Industry Information]
○ China Internet   Health Conference held, national strategy to incent market of RMB1 trln 

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"2016 China Internet   Health Conference" was held on Oct. 22 in Beijing city. The integration of internet and medical treatment & health is a relatively new field, and will bring in innovative space for massive technologies and applications with a large number of opportunities for reform and development, Chen Lidong, vice director of information & telecommunication development department under Ministry of Industry & Information Technology, indicated in the conference. Chen has proposed three suggestions regarding to such filed, such as accelerating the application and innovation of technologies to this respect, deepening their integration and innovation, and reinforcing data security in this field. 

Comment: The "Health China" has already been listed in overall development strategy nationwide. Along with implementation of such strategy, China's health industry will possibly break through a market scale of 10 trillion yuan, some experts pointed out. Among listed companies, Leking Wellness Co., Ltd. (300247.SZ) is transforming to family health system solution provide from sauna & health care equipment producer; Shanghai Everjoy Health Group Co., Ltd. (002162.SZ) announced to establish the industrial fund in August to speed up strategic transformation of big health industry. 

○ China Mobile announced candidates to win optical cable, quantity and price both increase to show industrial prospect 
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The website for China Mobile's purchase & bidding on Oct. 21 disclosed 15 winner candidates of common optical cable (first batch) in 2016. Based on bidding share ranking, the figure for , and Wuhan Yangtze Communication Industry Group Co., Ltd. (600345.SH) holds 17.58 percent equities of the listed company; 12.56 percent for Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd. (600522.SH); 11.45 percent for Hengtong Optic-electric Co., Ltd. (600487.SH); and 10.47 percent for Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Co., Ltd. (600498.SH). Additionally, Zhongli Science And Technology Group Co., Ltd. (002309.SZ), Shenzhen SDG Information Co., Ltd. (000070.SZ) and Kaile Science and Technology Co., Ltd. Hubei (000260.SZ) also have winning shares. 

Comment: China Mobile invites bids for 61.14 million cable km, and collected special optical cable of 14.81 million cable km in June; thus, the total number is 75.95 million cable km, research report of Industrial Securities believed. Based on this, the number will surpass 150 million cable km for whole-year bid invitations, up 50 percent year on year. In terms of optical cable price, the average price of several factories excesses 120 yuan per cable km, up 20 percent year on year, and the gross margin also improves obviously.  

○ U.S. internet widely out of work, ringing alarm bell on network security
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Two U.S. network service providers Dyn and Amazon on Oct. 21 suffered from network attack to make some residents in east coast of the U.S. and Europe not able to use online payment system PayPal, social media site Twitter, online video site Netflix or other sites. Department of Homeland Security of the U.S. is controlling and investing this now, but it has not been clear about who will be responsible for such "malicious actions", Earnest, spokesman of the White House, said. 

Comment: The U.S. internet suffering wide attack this time also rings the alarm bell for China. China's input on network security just accounts for around 2 percent in the IT industry, much less than 10 percent of European countries and the U.S., and the potential development space will reach 100 billion yuan, institutions pointed out. Nsfocus Information Technology Co., Ltd. (300369.SZ) is a leading enterprise to provide network security solutions. Westone Information Industry Inc. (002268.SZ) is a core state-owned enterprise for information security. 
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[Announcement Interpretation]
○ SMI Holding's proposal on merging Youngsun Investment approved 

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Shanghai SMI Holding Co., Ltd. (600649.SH) announced that the company has obtained approval document from China Securities Regulatory Commission on that it acquires Shanghai Youngsun Investment Co., Ltd. and establishes Shanghai Environment Co., Ltd. According to the proposal, SMI Holding will first issue A shares to all shareholders of Youngsun Investment and merge it through stock-for-stock in a proportion of 1:1, and it will make its wholly-owned subsidiary Environment Group to undertake all assets, liabilities, businesses and personnel of Youngsun Investment. And then Environment Group will be listed in the name of Shanghai Environment Co., Ltd. Each share of all stockholders of SMI Holding (after absorbing Youngsun Investment) will be split into 0.782637 share and 0.217363 share of SMI Holding and Shanghai Environment respectively. 

○ Controlling shareholder of Sierte Fertilizer Industry to sell stocks at RMB1.58 bln, actual controller changed 
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Anhui Ningguo Agricultural Means of Production, controlling shareholder of Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd., Company (002538.SZ), plans to sell its 179.53 million shares in the company (accounting for 25 percent of total share capital of the company) at a price of 8.8 yuan per share to Goocoo Industrial Holdings Co., Ltd. in cash of 1.58 billion yuan. Thus, Goocoo Industrial Holdings will be the biggest shareholder of Sierte Fertilizer Industry and shareholding proportion of Ningguo Agricultural Means of Production will decline to 13.29 percent. Actual controller of the listed company will be changed from Jin Guoqing to Yuan Qihong. 

Shareholding controller of Goocoo Industrial Holdings is Goocoo Investment Co., Ltd., which is engaged in investment and development of real estate industry and has no plan of adjusting principal business of the listed company. 
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○ Est Tools plans to acquire Shangyou Cutters to extend business chain 
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Est Tools Co., Ltd. (300488.SZ) plans to acquire 100 percent equity of Zhejiang Shangyou Cutters Co., Ltd. at total price of 194 million yuan, 53.8 million yuan of which will be paid in cash and the rest will be paid through issuing shares at a price of 62.89 yuan per share by private placement. Main products of Shangyou Cutters is high-precision complicated gear cutter and it is the supplier of leading enterprises such as Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co., Ltd. So it is complementary with Est Tools in product structure. According to performance commitment, net profit of Shangyou Cutters will reach 14.5 million yuan, 18.5 million yuan and 23 million yuan during 2016 and 2018 respectively. 

○ Yichang Changjin affirms to seek for controlling right of Wuchangyu
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After being inquired by Shanghai Stock Exchange, Yichang Changjin Co., Ltd., which bought shares of Hubei Wuchangyu Co., Ltd. (600275.SH) through secondary acquisition to five percent limit, announced that it planned to become controller shareholder of the listed company through shareholding increase or other means. As for this, Beijing Huapu Industry Group Co., Ltd., the current controlling shareholder of the listed company, forcefully opposed this. Yichang Changjin previously disclosed its shareholding increase plan to narrow the shareholding gap with Beijing Huapu Industry Group in less than four percentage points. 

○ Actual controller of China High Speed Railway Technology to transfer 490 mln stocks 
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Wen Bingrong, actual controller of China High Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd. (000008.SZ), and the company's persons acting in concert plans to transfer their 490 million shares at a price of 8.9 yuan per share, accounting for 17.77 percent of total share capital of the company. Meanwhile, Wen will transfer 140 million stocks to Beijing Yinye Jinguang Investment Enterprise, taking up 5.08 percent of total share capitals of the company. Yinye Jinguang is a professional investment fund managed by China Soft Capital. 

After the transfer, State-owned Properties Investment & Management Co., Ltd. of Haidian District, Beijing will be the company's biggest shareholder and there will be no actual shareholding controller and actual controller in the listed company. The company also releases a draft about restricted stock incentive plan. 

○ Everwin Precision Technology to control ForBetter Plastic & Electronic Products
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Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (300115.SZ) plans to acquire 36 percent equity of Dongguan ForBetter Plastic & Electronic Products Co., Ltd. at 297 million yuan through increasing investment and buying stocks. After the deal is done, it will hold 51 percent equity of ForBetter Plastic & Electronic Products. ForBetter Plastic & Electronic Products is specialized in R&D, design, manufacturing and sales of precision mould and precision structure of silica gel in consumption electronic field and its net profit will be no less than 75 million yuan, 110 million yuan and 160 million yuan during 2017 and 2019 respectively according to the commitment. 

[Financial Reports Express]
○ Annual net profit of Dynavolt Renewable Energy Technology and other firms expected to hike 

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Annual net profit of Guangdong Dynavolt Renewable Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (002684.SZ) is expected to rise by 31-56 times mainly because the fourth quarter is a traditional peak season for excide battery. Annual net profit of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466.SZ) is predicted to increase by five times due to increase in sales and price of lithium products. Annual net profit of Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co., Ltd. (002108.SZ) is expected to hike by 125-150 percent owing to sales growth. 

Annual net profit of Perfect World Co., Ltd. (002624.SZ) is expected to move up by 7 times due to acquisition of game business of Perfect World. Annual net profit of Kee Ever Bright Decorative Technology Co., Ltd. (002464.SZ) is estimated to go up by 472-521 percent as the company conducted major asset organization. Annual net profit of Henan Huaying Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (002321.SZ) is predicted to grow by 472-586 percent due to increase in sales and price. Annual net profit of Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co., Ltd. (002182.SZ) is expected to climb by 432-481 percent thanks to increase in magnesium price. Annual net profit of Shenzhen Topray solar Co., Ltd. (002218.SZ) is predicted to hike by 254-302 percent as earnings from photovoltaic electric charge increase. 

[Weekly Review]
○ Listen to voice of reason 

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Last week, SSE Composite Index continued to hike since the National Day holidays, but the sudden decline of B-share index on Monday terrified A-share investors a lot. SSN pointed out on that evening that the substantial influence of decline in B shares on A shares should not be overestimated and macro-economic indicators still supported the trend. Seen from later, B-share index closed with a decrease of 4.95 percent, while SSE Composite Index surged slightly by 0.89 percent and even rose above 3,100 points last week. Therefore, it is necessary for A-share investors to be panic. 

The market is always proceeding amid hesitation and doubt and the rational voice seems to be more valuable during the process. Besides cool analysis on the market, precise command and professional interpretation are also rational voices of SSN. For example, we mentioned the introduction of guideline on declaration of new energy vehicle in Industry Information on Oct. 17 and stocks of the sector rose generally next day; we reported that conference promoting to revive the Northeast industry base in China in SSN Focus on Oct. 18, Changchun Yidong Clutch Co., Ltd. (600148.SH), Daqing Huake Co., Ltd. (000985.SZ) and other local state-owned enterprises showed strong performance; we pointed out on Oct. 20 that informatization highlights agricultural modernization, Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co., Ltd. (000816.SZ) surged to the ten percent limit on Oct. 21. 

The only drawback is there was seesaw effect between the Main Board and the SME Board and ChiNext Board on Friday. However, as the SSE Composite Index is mainly driven by the surging of the listed companies whose company name start with "China" and securities companies and the market is supported by the continuously favorable economic data, adjustment of stocks in the SME Board and ChiNext Board is switch of hot spots. Some individual stocks which showed growth in the third quarterly report are expected to gain attention from capitals in the future. 
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