Britain's economy suffered no hit to its growth in the immediate aftermath of the June Brexit vote, according to GDP figures released on Friday, but the areas of economic growth have changed sharply.
The economy grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, covering the period just after the referendum vote on June 23 that set Britain on a path to leave the European Union (EU).
The figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) are the first revision of the third quarter GDP figures, and the growth figure was increased by 0.1 percentage point on the back of extended statistical detail.
At the same time, the figure for the second quarter was revised down by 0.1 percentage point, to 0.6 percent. Growth in the first quarter of the year was also revised down to 0.3 percent, down 0.1 percentage point.
The main driver of the continued strong performance was consumer spending, seemingly undeterred by the sharp fall in sterling against foreign currencies, immediately after the Brexit vote. It was 1.48 U.S. dollars to the pound on June 23, and fell immediately on June 24 to the low 1.20s. A further sharp fall to as low as 1.14 U.S. dollars followed in October, and it is now trading at 1.23 U.S. dollars.
Weak sterling will feed through to increased inflation throughout 2017, and the move has already begun, with November's CPI inflation at 1.2 percent, up 0.3 percentage points in October. But throughout the third quarter, consumers were undeterred by the fall.
A further driver of growth was a strong financial sector turnout (0.8 percent growth increase on the previous quarter).
Darren Morgan, deputy director at the ONS, said: "Robust consumer demand continued to help the UK economy grow steadily in the third quarter of 2016. Growth was slightly stronger than first thought, though, due to greater output in the financial sector."
The third quarter figures showed no damage to the economy after the Brexit vote, said Ruth Gregory, British economist for Capital Economics in a briefing note.
"The latest set of UK national accounts leave the economy looking even stronger after the referendum than previously estimated... suggesting that the economy didn't lose any pace following the referendum," said Gregory.
However, the figures showed that areas of growth had changed significantly since the June 23 vote. Growth on the output side of the economy was lopsided being entirely dependent on the services sector which grew a revised 1 percent on the previous quarter.
In addition, industrial production fell back 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, hit by a fall in manufacturing output. Construction contracted too, down 0.8 percent.
The prospects for 2017 are for reduced growth, said experts, as sterling's weakness hits consumer spending.
"2017 is likely to be an increasingly difficult year for the UK economy. Indeed, we expect GDP growth to slow markedly to 1.3 percent in 2017," said Dr Howard Archer, chief UK economist with IHS Markit in London.
Consumer fundamentals will "weaken markedly," said Archer, adding that uncertainty will be heightened by the British government starting the formal EU exit process.
The data suggest that the economy has exhibited greater than anticipated resilience in the face of headwinds such as Brexit worries and rising inflation, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
"However, it seems likely that growth will slow further in coming months as these headwinds intensify," he added.
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