Mexico's Finance Ministry on Friday again downgraded its economic growth forecast for the year, from the previous 2 to 3 percent range to 1.3 to 2.3 percent.
In a report presented to the Chamber of Deputies, the ministry said the adjustment reflected the lingering uncertainty surrounding foreign trade under U.S. President Donald Trump.
"This growth range takes into account the positive results in production, employment and investment seen in Mexico in the first months of the year, as well as the potential impact of the uncertainty of U.S. government policy in consumer and investment decisions, though that uncertainty has substantially diminished in the past two months," the ministry said.
Figures were based on "cautious" estimations, including an exchange rate of 19 pesos to dollar, annual inflation of 4.9 percent, the price of oil at an average of 42 dollars per barrel and oil output at 1.947 billion barrels per day, said the report.
"Projections are consistent with the three pillars that sustain Mexico's economic stability: a cautious fiscal policy; an independent and credible monetary policy; and an expansive and extensive agenda of 11 structural reforms that in 2016 contributed to 2.3 percent growth despite an adverse external climate that the rest of Latin America shrank 1.5 percent," the ministry said.
"A decrease in uncertainty" affecting global markets in 2018, is expected to lead to growth of between 2 and 3 percent next year, with the peso holding steady at 19.1 to the dollar, oil prices at 46 dollars per barrel, a slight increase in oil output to 2.006 billion barrels per day, according to the report. However, the ministry expects Mexico's oil exports to drop from 904 million barrels per day in 2017 to 850 million barrels per day in 2018.
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