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Australia sets world-record run of growth as GDP figures remain positive

SYDNEY
2017-06-07 12:32

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Australia has witnessed the longest run of economic growth as of Wednesday, with figures released showing an 0.3 percent increase to the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2017.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the economy grew 1.7 percent from last year's mark, while the seasonally adjusted terms of trade results were also up by 6.6 percent, ensuring that Australia continued its 103 quarters of consecutive growth and recession avoidance.

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison was buoyant at the results, and said the data demonstrated the "continued resilience" of the economy in Australia, and that 17 of the 20 industry sectors experienced growth.

"The Government's economic plan acknowledges the challenges that are evident, and were anticipated, in these numbers and we remain determined to get on with the job of implementing our plan to secure the better days ahead," Morrison said.

The chief economist at CommSec, Craig James, believes that despite the lower levels of growth in this period following a steep decline in the housing sector with dwellings data detracting from growth in the quarter, the outlook still remains positive.

"We still haven't seen that new supply coming on adding to growth, and that will happen over the next 12 to 18 months, so we've had a fairly strong reading in terms of economic growth without the dwellings sector providing a contribution," James said.

Shane Garrett, senior economist at the Housing Industry Association, said the key driver for the contraction of the Australian economy for the period was the slowdown in growth, and agrees with James that despite the investment in new housing dropping by 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, the next few quarters could see better numbers.

"There is still a significant volume of work that remains to be done on projects at various stages of construction which is expected to see the level of investment remain close to a historically high level over the new few quarters," Garrett said.

The CommSec chief economist said he maintains a positive outlook on the Australian economy, especially considering the many geopolitical events of the past year that could have led to negative results locally.

"The fact that our economy continues to grow, and has expanded for 25 or so years, is quite remarkable," James said.

However, not all economists share the completely rosy outlook for the Australian economy moving forward. Paul Dales, chief economist at Capital Economics, said, "I don't think households can continue to spend at their current rate, and I think the boost to the economy from the housing boom is starting to fade, so I think we will get a slight slowdown in economic growth this year compared to last year."

With the data showing an increase in household consumption that drove growth for the period, Dales believes that this may be down to the weather in Australia, as it suggests increased electricity use due to the unusually hot conditions in the first quarter of the year.

Looking ahead to 2018, Dales suggests that although Australia should be able to maintain overall GDP growth above 2 percent, the figures he predicts are well short of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) estimates for the year ahead.

"The economic growth could strengthen next year, but I don't think it will strengthen as fast as the RBA is expecting," Dales said.

"The RBA's forecast of 2.75 to 3.75 percent for next year, with a midpoint of 3.25 percent, is a bit too optimistic. I don't think it is going to happen."

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