The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) eased to a positive 0.12 in January from a downwardly revised positive 0.14 in December, mainly due to a factory slowdown, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported on Monday.
Data also shows the index's less-volatile, three-month moving average fell to positive 0.12 in January from positive 0.26 in December.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in U.S. national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: production and income; employment; personal consumption and housing; sales, orders, and inventories.
For the indicators, zero represents trend growth and a three-month average below negative 0.70 suggests a recession has begun. 40 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in January, while 45 deteriorated.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI fell to negative 0.01 in January from positive 0.11 in December. Total industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in January after increasing 0.4 percent in December.
The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of positive 0.07 to the CFNAI in January, down slightly from positive 0.09 in December, said Chicago Fed.
Employment-related indicators contributed positive 0.09 to the CFNAI in January, up from negative 0.02 in December. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 in January after increasing by 160,000 in December.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to negative 0.03 in January from negative 0.05 in December. Housing starts increased to 1,326,000 annualized units in January from 1,209,000 in December.
Data also shows the index's less-volatile, three-month moving average fell to positive 0.12 in January from positive 0.26 in December.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in U.S. national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: production and income; employment; personal consumption and housing; sales, orders, and inventories.
For the indicators, zero represents trend growth and a three-month average below negative 0.70 suggests a recession has begun. 40 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in January, while 45 deteriorated.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI fell to negative 0.01 in January from positive 0.11 in December. Total industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in January after increasing 0.4 percent in December.
The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of positive 0.07 to the CFNAI in January, down slightly from positive 0.09 in December, said Chicago Fed.
Employment-related indicators contributed positive 0.09 to the CFNAI in January, up from negative 0.02 in December. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 in January after increasing by 160,000 in December.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to negative 0.03 in January from negative 0.05 in December. Housing starts increased to 1,326,000 annualized units in January from 1,209,000 in December.
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