U.S. economy expected to grow by 2 pct or less in next 12 months: survey

2019-10-29 05:47

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WASHINGTON, Oct. 28 (Xinhua) -- Sentiment has shifted toward U.S. growth expectations of 2.0 percent or less for the 12 months ending in the third quarter of 2020, according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

Survey respondents' consensus outlook for the U.S. economy remains positive, as measured by year-over-year growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP), but has moderated since the July survey.

The October 2019 NABE Business Conditions Survey report presents the responses of 101 NABE members to a survey conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 14, on business conditions in their firms or industries, and reflects third-quarter results and the near-term outlook.

More than two-thirds, or 69 percent of panelists expect real GDP growth of 1.1 percent to 2.0 percent over the coming year, while only one out of five expects growth of 2.1 percent to 3.0 percent, the survey found.

In comparison, the survey noted, nearly half, or 48 percent of respondents in the July survey expected real GDP growth to exceed 2 percent between the second quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020.

"Results from the October 2019 NABE Business Conditions Survey show that the U.S. economy appears to be slowing, and respondents expect still slower growth over the next 12 months," said NABE President Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG.

"After more than a year since the U.S. first imposed new tariffs on its trading partners, higher tariffs are disrupting business conditions, especially in the goods-producing sector," Hunter said.

"Two-thirds of respondents from that sector indicate that tariffs have had negative impacts on business conditions at their firms," he added.

While roughly one-third, or 32 percent of panelists report no impact -- in general or on net -- at their firms from recent tariffs, the share citing net negative impacts increased to 35 percent in October from 28 percent in July, the new survey showed.

In another survey released by the NABE in early October, a panel of forecasters expect U.S. real GDP growth to slow to 2.3 percent in 2019, and then to 1.8 percent in 2020, citing trade policy uncertainty as one of the downside risks.
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