WASHINGTON, June 10 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero, and projected interest rates to remain at the current level through at least 2022.
"The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policy-making body, said in a statement after concluding a two-day meeting.
In light of these developments, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25 percent, the statement said.
"The FOMC made no major policy changes today, but it left little doubt that it will do 'whatever it takes' to help the economy climb out of its pandemic-induced crater," Jay H. Bryson, acting chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in a report.
In a separate statement, the Fed projected Wednesday that the U.S. economy will shrink by 6.5 percent in 2020, followed by a 5-percent gain next year.
According to the central bank's economic projection, the unemployment rate could fall to 9.3 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, before reaching 6.5 percent by the end of next year.
In a virtual press conference Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the economic projections were made with the general expectation that the economic recovery will begin in the second half of the year and last over the next couple of years.
"The Fed expects to see a sharper downturn and a slower recovery compared to many private sector forecasters," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm, wrote on a blog.
The Fed also projected that interest rates would remain near zero through at least 2022 as policy-makers strive to support the recovery of the economy from the COVID-19-induced recession.
The central bank's policy meeting followed the National Bureau of Economic Research's announcement on Monday that the U.S. economy officially entered a recession in February, ending the longest expansion in U.S. history.
Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that economic activity in the first quarter contracted at an annual rate of 5 percent in a second estimate, 0.2 percentage point lower than the previous estimate.
Many analysts said that the downwardly revised figure still does not fully capture COVID-19 economic damage, and expect a much deeper contraction in the second quarter.
"The virus and the forceful measures taken to control its spread have induced a sharp decline in economic activity and a surge in job losses," Powell told reporters.
"Indicators of spending and production plummeted in April, and the decline in real GDP in the current quarter is likely to be the most severe on record," said the central bank chief.
Even after the unexpectedly positive May employment report, nearly 20 million jobs have been lost on net since February, he noted, adding that the rise in joblessness has been especially severe for lower-wage workers, for women, and for African Americans and Hispanics.
Powell said some indicators in recent weeks suggest a stabilization or even a modest rebound in some segments of the economy, such as retail merchandise and motor vehicle sales.
Powell, however, voiced his concern that millions of Americans could be permanently unemployed from this crisis.
The Fed chair said the U.S. economy will likely need more fiscal and monetary support for a long time, suggesting that Congress could do more to help the unemployed and small business owners amid the crisis.
"The extent of the downturn and the pace of recovery remain extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus," Powell said. "A full recovery is unlikely to occur until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities."
The Fed chair also warned that regional outbreaks could slow the pace of the recovery, adding that "a series of local spikes could have the effect of undermining people's confidence in traveling, in restaurants, (and) entertainment."
The Fed cut interest rates to near zero at two unscheduled meetings in March and began purchasing massive quantities of U.S. treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to repair financial markets. It also unveiled new lending programs to provide up to 2.3 trillion U.S. dollars to support the economy in response to the outbreak.
Powell said the ongoing purchases of treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities have helped to restore orderly market conditions, and have fostered more accommodative financial conditions.
"As market functioning has improved since the strains experienced in March, we have gradually reduced the pace of these purchases," he said, while noting that the central bank will increase holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities over coming months at least at the current pace.
When asked whether the Fed's policy has fueled a stock market bubble, Powell told reporters that the central bank is doing what it can to support the economy, and cannot target policy to equity levels.
Noting that the Fed made no reference to negative rates, Bryson said "we do not think Fed policymakers want to go negative due to potential deleterious effects that negative rates could have on the U.S. financial system."
Bryson added that if the economy is not "on track to achieve" the FOMC's "maximum employment and price stability goals," then the committee will dig deeper into its tool kit to find ways to support economic activity.
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