In the week ending Aug. 22, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased by 98,000 to reach 1 million, the Labor Department said in a report. It's the 22nd time in the past 23 weeks that the figure came in above 1 million.
"While claims have moved up and down in recent weeks, on net, the trend is improving -- but only gradually," Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an analysis, noting that new claims for regular state benefits are still higher than any week during the Great Recession.
As COVID-19 shutdowns rippled through the workforce, initial jobless claims spiked by 3 million to reach a record 3.3 million in the week ending March 21, and then doubled to reach a record 6.87 million in the week ending March 28.
After that, the number had been declining for 15 weeks consecutively -- though they were still at historically high levels -- before the trend was reversed in the week ending July 18 amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.
The number then fell to 963,000 in the week ending Aug. 8, the first time it has dipped below 1 million since mid-March, but the trend was reversed again in the week ending Aug. 15, when the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose back above the 1 million mark.
The Labor Department's jobless claims report also showed the number of people continuing to collect state unemployment benefits declined by 223,000 to 14.5 million in the week ending Aug. 15. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Aug. 8 also declined 1 million to 27 million.
House, however, noted that "ongoing weakness is also evidenced" by rising claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program, a federal program that covers independent contractors or the self-employed, who are not eligible for regular state programs.
The Labor Department's report showed that jobless claims under the PUA program totaled 607,806 in the week ending Aug. 22, an increase of 82,820 from the previous week.
"The drop in initial claims shows that the labor market is heading in the right direction, but there remains a long way to go," House said.
An extra 600 U.S. dollars in weekly unemployment benefits expired at the end of July, but Democratic lawmakers and the Trump administration remain deadlocked over the next COVID-19 relief package, with both sides blaming each other for making little progress.
Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Jared Bernstein, a top economic adviser to former Vice President Joe Biden, wrote in an op-ed published by The New York Times on Tuesday that the U.S. economy could degrade to "no growth at all" if Congress fails to pass the next COVID-19 relief bill when lawmakers return to Capitol Hill after Labor Day.
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Thursday that the central bank will seek to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, a new strategy that implies allowing for periods of moderate overshoots following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent.
The new approach came after the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-making body, formally approved a revamp of the central bank's statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy following a review of its monetary policy framework.
The revised statement also shows that the Fed's policy decision will be informed by the assessments of the "shortfalls of employment from its maximum level" rather than by "deviations from its maximum level" in the previous statement.
"Our revised statement reflects our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities, and that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an unwelcome increase in inflation," said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Fed officials believed that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remained "very elevated," with the path of the economy highly dependent on the course of the virus, according to the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting released last week. The central bank in late July kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero.
A National Association for Business Economics survey released Monday showed that 80 percent of panelists indicated there is at least a one-in-four chance of a "double-dip" recession, and almost half of the respondents expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to remain below pre-pandemic level until the second half of 2022 or later.
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