With a first-quarter decline of 1.6 percent, a second consecutive quarter of negative growth would meet the technical definition of a recession.
GDPNow is a running estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.
Last week, the GDPNow model estimated real GDP in the second quarter contracted at an annual rate of 2.1 percent.
After this week's releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the estimate of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 0.8 percent to 1.3 percent, the model showed.
Meanwhile, the estimate of real gross private domestic investment growth increased from contraction of 15.1 percent to contraction of 14.9 percent.
The nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter GDP growth decreased from 0.38 percentage points to 0.21 percentage points, the model showed.
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