The most active corn contract for December delivery soared 19.5 cents, or 3.46 percent, to settle at 5.8375 U.S. dollars per bushel. September wheat rose 11 cents, or 1.45 percent, to settle at 7.7 dollars per bushel. November soybean gained 30.25 cents, or 2.3 percent, to settle at 13.46 dollars per bushel.
Key to deciphering whether seasonal lows are being formed will be CBOT price action this week. Soybean values are function of August weather and Chinese demand. There are rumors that China has booked 2-3 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for August and are back asking for U.S. offers for October/November.
CBOT corn and wheat markets will focus on Ukraine export potential and if the corridor agreement can be properly executed. This may require a few weeks for certainty. Chicago-based research company AgResource stays bullish into late 2022.
The world grain industry is debating how much grain Ukraine can export if Russia allows the export corridor to be open. The UN, the Food and Agricultural Organization and the Ukrainian government have estimated that Ukraine will be able to export as much as 5 million metric tons of grain per month. Private sources estimate that 2.6-3.0 million metric tons of grain in total could flow out of Ukraine in the best of circumstances.
For the week ending July 21, the United States shipped 28.5 million bushels of corn, 14.2 million bushels of soybeans and 17.5 million bushels of wheat.
Rains over the next 10 days will be farther south, which assures that Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and the Dakotas will hold in an arid trend. A period of hot/dry weather will follow with a high-pressure ridge residing across the Midwest.
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