The most active corn contract for December delivery fell 3 cents, or 0.45 percent, to settle at 6.645 U.S. dollars per bushel. December wheat plunged 21.25 cents, or 2.57 percent, to settle at 8.065 dollars per bushel. January soybean rose 5.5 cents, or 0.38 percent, to settle at 14.52 dollars per bushel.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) November Crop Report was slightly bearish with U.S. corn and soybean yields rising slightly. But Chicago-based research company AgResource doubts that any sharp break may occur until more is known about the 2022-2023 South American weather and crop sizes.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) November report estimated that 2022-2023 U.S. corn end stocks grew to 1,182 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from October. The report left U.S. corn exports unchanged at 2,150 million bushels. Spot CBOT corn futures will be limited to 7.00 dollars to 7.20 dollars without a dire South American drought.
The report raised 2022-2023 U.S. soybean end stock total by 10 percent to 220 million bushels. The increase was due to a 0.4 bushel-per-acre (BPA) jump in U.S. soybean yield to 50.2 BPA.
U.S. 2022-2023 soybean exports held steady at 2,045 million bushels with the Brazilian soybean crop left unchanged at a record large 152 million metric tons. China's soybean import estimate was left unchanged at 98 million metric tons. The report was viewed as slightly bearish and will not support spot CBOT soybean futures above 14.75 dollars to 15.00 dollars.
U.S. wheat end stocks were trimmed 5 million bushels to 571 million bushels amid higher projected feed use. Exports were left unchanged at 775 million bushels, as U.S. share of world trade in crop year 2022-2023 will be a record low of 10.4 percent. The season average cash price was unchanged at 9.20 dollars.
Globally, corn end stocks dropped from 301.2 million metric tons in October to 300.8 million metric tons in November; soybean end stocks increased from 100.5 million metric tons to 102.1 million metric tons; and wheat end stocks increased slightly from 267.5 million metric tons to 267.8 million metric tons.
U.S. crop production is known. Weak U.S. corn and wheat export demand caps rallies. A shift in global soybean trade flows is imminent. AgResource holds that the longer-term outlook for CBOT grain futures is becoming bearish amid slowing world export demand and improving weather across Brazil and Argentina.
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