The most active corn contract for December delivery fell 1.5 cents, or 0.22 percent, to settle at 6.6525 U.S. dollars per bushel. December wheat lost 10.75 cents, or 1.3 percent, to settle at 8.175 dollars per bushel. January soybean shed 28 cents, or 1.92 percent, to settle at 14.2925 dollars per bushel.
Soybeans led the drop on a lack of new export demand and the probable return of normal rainfall across Central Brazil during the second half of November. Breaking news is absent, but the de-escalation in Russian-NATO tension and talk of ongoing corridor negotiations are likely to keep Ukrainian corn and Russian wheat flowing into the world market.
Agricultural markets remain highly sensitive to Black Sea geopolitical issues, but until there is an actual halt to trade flows, competition for near-term corn and wheat market share remains steep. Brazilian FOB soybeans are quoted 0.80 dollars per bushel below U.S. Gulf origin, and the discounts may grow modestly without adverse weather in December. Chicago-based research company AgResource remains a seller of rallies.
U.S. exporters sold 73 million bushels of corn to Mexico on Wednesday. This provides some measure of relief to the pace of new demand given the fact that U.S. corn export commitments to date are down 54 percent year on year.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows that U.S. ethanol production in the week ending Nov. 11 totaled 297 million gallons, down 12 million gallons from the previous week and down 5 percent from the same week in 2021. Ethanol inventories last Friday were 895 million gallons, down a sizable 37 million gallons week over week.
Near-complete dryness remains intact across the U.S. Southern and Central Plains into Dec. 2. Drought deepens further across the hard red winter (HRW) wheat Belt.
Additional rains will impact Buenos Aires in the coming weekend. A few lite/scattered showers are possible elsewhere in Argentina during Saturday-Monday. A vast majority of Brazilian soybean producing areas will be adequately watered in the next two weeks.
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