The most active corn contract for May delivery rose 3 cents, or 0.44 percent, to settle at 6.805 U.S. dollars per bushel. May wheat fell 13.5 cents, or 1.74 percent, to settle at 7.6275 dollars per bushel. May soybean gained 21.75 cents, or 1.43 percent, to settle at 15.44 dollars per bushel.
Wheat fell as Russian FOB offers stay depressed at 297-299 dollars per metric ton. The unknown regarding the Argentine soybean crop size has underpinned soybean.
The market is aware of the 2023 Argentine soybean crop loss of 13-16 million metric tons, but this is balanced against the record large Brazilian harvest of 152-155 million metric tons and a Paraguay crop of 9.6-10.5 million metric tons. Chicago-based research company AgResource warns against chasing rallies in soybeans, soymeal and corn.
U.S. weekly export inspections were disappointing in corn and wheat. For respective crop years to date, the United States has exported just 540 million bushels of corn, down 37 percent year on year; 1,520 million bushels of soybeans, up 3 percent; and 538 million bushels of wheat, down 3 percent. U.S. wheat exports are already at a 40-year low.
Brazil is expected to harvest nearly 2.0 million metric tons of soybeans daily this week, of which 1 million metric tons will be hedged on the CBOT.
The first chance of rain is forecast later this week across Northern and Central Argentina with a more important chance starting March 1 and continuing into the weekend. Brazil will see near normal to above normal rainfall. No extreme heat is forecast and the harvest should continue normally over the next two weeks. The key for South American crop production is whether Argentine crops can catch a needed rain.
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