The most active corn contract for December delivery plunged 9.25 cents, or 1.9 percent, to settle at 4.765 U.S. dollars per bushel. December wheat rose 3 cents, or 0.51 percent, to settle at 5.875 dollars per bushel. November soybean fell 22.5 cents, or 1.64 percent, to settle at 13.465 dollars per bushel.
The September U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report are in line with trade expectations, being slightly bullish for wheat and soybeans and neutral to slightly bearish for corn on extra acres. It is now up to actual harvest yield and crop quality reports to push CBOT valuations.
U.S. September corn yield was lowered to 173.8 bushels per acre (BPA), down 1.3 BPA, with harvested corn acre raised 800,000 acres to 87.1 million acres. The loss of U.S. corn yield and gain in acres added 23 million bushels from August, with the 2023 U.S. corn crop pegged at 15,134 million bushels.
The report put 2023-2024 U.S. corn end stocks at 2,221 million bushels, slightly higher than 2,202 million bushels estimate in August. The 2023-2024 world corn stocks are forecast at 314 million metric tons, up 3 million metric tons from August estimate and 14.5 million metric tons from last year. The 2023 Brazilian corn crop was raised to 137 million metric tons with exports at 57 million metric tons. China corn imports were raised by 500,000 metric tons to 18.50 million metric tons. 2023-2024 world corn production is only 14 million metric tons more than consumption.
The report lowered U.S. soybean yield by 0.8 BPA to 50.1 BPA. U.S. soybean harvested acres were adjusted up by a meager 100,000 acres to 82.8 million acres. 2023 U.S. soybean production was dropped by 59 million bushels to 4,146 million bushels.
The 2023-2024 U.S. soybean end stocks were forecast at 220 million bushels, down from August estimate of 245 million bushels. USDA was forced to cut U.S. 2023-2024 soybean exports by 35 million bushels and crush by 10 million bushels to accommodate such limited stocks.
The report estimated that world 2023-2024 soybean end stocks would ease slightly to 119.2 million metric tons from 119.4 million metric tons in August. China 2022-2023 soybean imports were raised to a record 102 million metric tons with 2023-2024 imports placed at 100 million metric tons. Key support for November soybeans rests at 13.25 dollars and a test of contract highs is forecast.
The report kept 2023-2024 U.S. wheat end stocks unchanged at 615 million bushels, but trimmed 2023-2024 global wheat end stocks by 7 million metric tons to 258.6 million metric tons, the lowest since 2015. Combined major exporter stocks were cut by 1.8 million metric tons to 54 million metric tons. Wheat crops were cut in Argentina, Australia, and Canada. USDA also lowered EU output by another 1 million metric tons. A hike in Ukrainian production worth 1 million metric tons was only partially offsetting. Russia will be by far the world's largest wheat exporter at 49 million metric tons. Global wheat supplies are not abundant.
The report lowered U.S. hard red spring wheat exports by 10 million bushels and raised hard red winter exports by a like amount. Final U.S. wheat production will be published in USDA's Small Grains Summary on Sept. 30. Seasonal lows are being formed in world wheat values.
Chicago-based research company AgResource maintains final U.S. corn and soybean yield forecasts at 171 BPA and 49 BPA, respectively, holding it remains critical that the wet season in Central Brazil arrives in a timely manner by October. AgResource holds better sales opportunities occur mid-autumn onward.
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