The most active corn contract for December delivery soared 13 cents, or 2.64 percent, to settle at 5.05 U.S. dollars per bushel. December wheat rose 13.75 cents, or 2.37 percent, to settle at 5.94 dollars per bushel. November soybean gained 4.5 cents, or 0.34 percent, to settle at 13.155 dollars per bushel.
U.S. 2023-2024 soybean end stocks will be historically tight with farmers tight fisted with the U.S. harvest pushing beyond 75 percent complete. Strong demand for U.S. soybean products makes a break in soybean futures difficult to sustain with crush margins rising.
U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat sales now account for 66 percent of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) annual forecast at 96 million bushels. Chicago-based research company AgResource holds that any additional Chinese demand will be highly bullish. World ocean freight costs are at a one-year high. The Danube River impact needs to be closely followed as it could disrupt Ukraine exports.
There are rumors that China is back asking for offers on U.S. SRW Gulf wheat and even U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) corn, offering support to CBOT corn and wheat on breaks.
U.S. weekly export sales for the week ending Oct. 12 were 23.3 million bushels of wheat, 34.7 million bushels of corn and 50.4 million bushels of soybeans. For the respective crop years to date, the United States has sold 394 million bushels of wheat, down 5 percent year on year; 639 million bushels of corn, up 17 percent; and 767 million bushels of soybeans, down 31 percent.
It is drier across Northern Brazil. Meaningful rainfall in South America stays relegated to Southern Brazil and Argentina. Weather concern is across the Northern two-thirds of Brazil where dry soils prevail.
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