U.S. dollar falls with Fed minutes eyed

NEW YORK, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. dollar weakened substantially in late trading on Monday, continuing its decline from the previous week, as investors maintain the belief that the Federal Reserve has completed its cycle of interest rate increases.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, decreased 0.47 percent to 103.4383 in late trading.

The economic schedule is quieter due to the Thanksgiving holiday week in the United States, while the highlight will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) November minutes due on Tuesday.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin said Monday that U.S. inflation has come down nicely, but some businesses are planning to keep raising prices - and that means the Fed should hold rates at relatively high levels for a long time.

"I see inflation being stubborn, and that makes the case for me being higher for longer," said Barkin.

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 99.8 percent chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in December.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States fell 0.8 percent month on month to 103.9 in October, following a month-on-month decline of 0.7 percent in September, according to a release by The Conference Board on Monday.

The LEI contracted 3.3 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.5 percent contraction over the previous six months.

"The U.S. LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.

"After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in the near term. The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending, to tip the U.S. economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024," added Zabinska-La Monica.

In late New York trading, the euro increased to 1.0946 dollars from 1.0899 dollars in the previous session, and the British pound rose to 1.2510 dollars from 1.2449 U.S. dollars in the previous session.

The U.S. dollar bought 148.3030 Japanese yen, lower than 149.6650 Japanese yen of the previous session. The U.S. dollar decreased to 0.8843 Swiss francs from 0.8856 Swiss francs, and it was up to 1.3722 Canadian dollars from 1.3717 Canadian dollars. The U.S. dollar fell to 10.4398 Swedish krona from 10.5313 Swedish krona.