It is estimated that the annual growth rate of electricity consumption will be 6.5 percent as demands weakened and industrial production reduced due to environmental restrictions.
Data from the National Energy Administration on November 14 shows that in October, China’s electricity consumption came at 513 billion KWH, up 5.0 percent from last year, down 2.2 percentage points from September, setting a new low for the year. An insider said that as demands weakened and industrial production reduced due to environmental restrictions, it is estimated that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in the fourth quarter will contract from the third quarter. The annual growth rate of electricity consumption will be 6.5 percent, higher than the average growth of 2016.
It is learned that the country’s total electricity consumption in the previous two months increased by 6.3 percent year on year. In March, the total electricity consumption expanded 7.9 percent. But the growth rate gradually fell since April. The growth rate was 5.1 percent in May, and increased by 1.4 percentage points to 6.5 percent in June. The monthly growth rate in July recorded new high in 46 months since September 2013. The growth rate of electricity consumption dropped again in August, increasing by 6.4 percent from the same period of previous year. In September, it again rose to 7.2 percent.
The fall of electricity consumption in October is closely related to the short-term economic conditions, particularly the fluctuations of industrial operation. By sectors, compared to September, the electricity consumption in the primary and tertiary industries has increased. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry fell 2.1 percentage points. The household electricity consumption in urban and rural areas fell 3 percentage points. In particular, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry is only 3 percent.
The lasted data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in October. The added value of industrial companies above the designated scale in October increased by 6.2 percent year on year, less than market expectations of 6.3 percent, down from the 6.6 percent growth rate in September. According to a report released by CICC macro research team, environmental protection has had a great impact on industrial production in October. 28 cities continued to give environmental restrictions.
State Grid Energy Research Institute notes in a report that China's economy will continue to operate stably in the fourth quarter. Owing to the air pollution control in the heating season in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as well as the higher basis of electricity consumption last year, the growth rate of electricity demand fell from the third quarter. It is expected that China’s total electricity consumption will grow about 5 percent in the fourth quarter, and about 6.5 percent for the full year of 2017.
The China Electricity Council estimates that China’s total electricity consumption will maintain a steady growth in the fourth quarter, and grow about 6.5 percent for the whole year, higher than the average growth rate of 2016. Temperature factor drives the full year’ growth rate up 1 percentage point.
Translated by Coral Zhong
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