China’s GDP expected to up by 6.7 pct. in 2018

According to a report released by Prediction Science Research Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences at a press conference of announcing 2018 China’s economic forecast held on January 18, China’s economy will keep stable and faster growth in 2018. GDP is predicted to grow buy around 6.7 percent this year, about 0.2 percentage points lower than that in 2017.

It is predicted in the report that China’s economic growth will be faster first and then slow in 2018. It will come at about 6.8 percent in the first quarter, 6.7 percent in the second and third quarters, and about 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The growth in added value of the first industry will stand at 3.6 percent, that of the second industry will be 6.0 percent, and that of tertiary industry will reach 7.8 percent in 2018. Contribution of consumption, investment and net exports to GDP growth will account for 4.5 percentage points, 2.0 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.

China’s fixed-asset investment growth has slowed steadily since 2018. Investment structure will continue to be optimized. It is expected that the growth will see stability and is likely to enjoy good momentum. Investment is expected to gain by around 6.4 percent for the whole year, 0.7-0.8 percentage points slower than that in 2017。

China has entered an important stage where consumer demand keeps increasing, consumption structure accelerates in upgrading, and consumption’s influence on driving economic growth is strengthened significantly. It is predicted that China’s consumption will maintain the growing trend in 2018 to reach 47.24 trillion yuan, representing a nominal increase of 9.1 percent, 0.14 percentage points higher when compared with that in 2017.

If there’s no significant change, China’s consumer price index (CPI) may gain by about 1.9 percent, producer price index and purchasing price index of raw material (PPIRM) will rise by around 4.2 percent and 4.8 percent this year, respectively. The three major price indexes are likely to see the highest year-on-year growth in mid-2018. Price growth will slow along with slower economic growth in the second half of the year.
 
Translated by Vanessa Chen