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Trillion yuan opportunity emerges as 5G R&D validation advances

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2016-11-22 15:18

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After the Polar Code was determined as a standard scenario for 5GeMBB control channel, China’s IMT-2020(5G)team immediately convened a news conference in respect of the standard for the second phase of 5G technology R&D test on Nov.20 in Beijing. It is learnt that the validation of the second phase will be completed at the end of 2017. Industry insider indicates that the advancement of China’s 5G technology R&D test will drive the upgrading of communication, electronic parts, chips and terminal utilization as well as investment opportunities in these fields. The future market is expected to reach trillions of yuan.
 
Chinese enterprises have greater say on 5G standard in globe
 
At the 87th 3GPP RAN1 Meeting held on Nov. 18 in Nevada, US, the Polar Code directed by Chinese enterprises represented by Huawei, was determined by the 3GPP as a control channel standard solution for 5GeMBB scenario.
 
In an interview with the Shanghai Securities News, a member of the IMT-2020(5G0promoting team indicated that this is Chinese enterprises’ success in 5G products, industrialization of technology and defense of patent intellectual property rights. As a core member of the promoting team, Huawei says that this is a milestone for 5G standard, and it will fortitude telecom operators, equipment manufacturers, chip and terminal providers’ faith and resolution in cooperation. Insider from the communication industry says that the introduction of Polar Code will significantly improve 5G network users’ experience and further enhance China’s competitiveness in 5G standard.
 
It is learnt that channel coding/decoding is one of the core technologies in the wireless communication field. The improvement of its performance can directly improve the network coverage and transmission rate. While in comparison with Turbo, Polar Code can realize identical BER performance with lower signal to noise ratio. Chinese enterprises represented by Huawei have reached consensus on the potential of Polar Code, and put great R&D efforts for the in-depth research, evaluation and optimization of its application scheme in 5G, making breakthroughs with respect to its transmission performance.
 
Insider of the communication industry believes that the establishment of 5G standards still has a long way to go. Now the inclusion of Polar Code in 5G standards is just a step forward, which is still far from China’s dominance of 5G standards.
 
China starts second phase of R&D and validation of 5G
 
The IMT-2020(5G)promoting team convened a news conference in respect of the standard for the second phase of 5G technology R&D test on Nov.20 in Beijing.
 
At the news conference, Wang Xiaoyun, deputy chief of the team and general manager of technology division of China Mobile Communication Corporation, has issued the standard for the second phase of 5G technology R&D test on behalf of the team. “The standard issued this time is the foundation for 5G prototype developing, system technology solution validation and 5G industry chain cultivation. It is of great significance to the effective development of 5G technology R&D test,” said Wen Ku, head of the information and communication development division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).
 
Previously, China has started the first phase test of 5G R&D in January 2016 under the lead of the IMT-2020(5G)promoting team, and released the test result on Sept. 22. At this stage, tests on the function and performance of key technologies of 5G wireless and network were completed, including seven key wireless technologies such as large-scale antenna, new multiple accesses, new multi carriers and high-frequency communication, and four key network technologies such as network slicing and mobile edge computing. The test results show that the above key technologies can support varied demands in 5G scenarios, including 5G user experience rate, millisecond end-to-end delay and huge amounts of connections (millions of connections per square meters).
 
As to the emphases of the validation test in the second stage, a member of the IMT-2020(5G)promoting team revealed that the core of the second phase is R&D and experiment of typical 5G wireless hollow and network technology solution featured by high-speed, low delay and low power consumption, which is expected to complete at the end of 2017. It is learnt that the second-phase test of China’s 5G technology R&D experiment will be conducted based on a unified test platform, unified frequency and unified equipment and test standard, and actively bring in chip and instrument manufacturers to participate in, to connect the industry chain.
 
Data shows that 5G is characterized by high speed, high capacity density, low power consumption and low delay. The main four scenarios of 5G in the future include: firstly, provide user experience rate of more than 100Mbps for users in severe environment such as high-speed mobility; secondly, satisfy demand for extremely high data transmission rate in certain areas with 1Gbps user experience rate; thirdly, low power consumption connection, which could be used in scenarios with sensing and data collection as the target, including smart city, environment supervision, intelligent farming, forest fire prevention and etc.; fourthly, in car networking and industrial control sectors where low delay and high reliability are required, 5G can meet the requirement of millisecond delay and approximately 100 percent reliability.
 
Market space of industry chain expected to reach trillions of yuan
 
In the A-share market, stimulated by the news that Polar Code was included in 5G standards, “5G communication concept stocks” are pursed by investors. On Nov. 21, most 5G concept stocks rose. Tongyu Communication Inc. (002792.SZ) and Eoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd. (300502.SZ) even surged by over 7 percent.
 
With the advancement of China’s 5G technology R&D experiment, it will drive the upgrading of communication, electronic parts, chips and terminal utilization as well as investment opportunities in these fields. The future market is expected to reach trillion yuan, according to industry insider.
 
Communication infrastructure sector, including upstream industries such communication device, base station, antenna, and radio frequency IC parts, will be the first to benefit. The three largest telecommunication operators in China and cellphone manufacturers will also directly benefit from the elimination of old handsets result from the introduction of 5G.
 
As a matter of fact, a wave of renovation of old base stations and construction of new base stations would appear when upgrading base stations each time. As a qualified supplier of Qixing Iron Tower Co., Ltd. (002359.SZ), Liaoning Shunbang Communication Technology Co., Ltd. will markedly benefit from the implementation of 5G technology, said Chen Mingjun, general manager of Shunbang Communication Technology. “From 2G to 4G, and further to 5G, the transmission distance of waves becomes shorter with the increase of the frequency band. This requires a higher density of base stations. The industry estimated that 5G require a base station every 50 to 70 meters. In the future, the number of base stations will be quadrupled or quintupled from present, which can provide a great opportunity for base station operators.”
 
In addition, 5G will boost the development of industries like electronic components, chips and antenna. Relevant A-share companies have planned ahead. Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co., Ltd. (002138.SZ) indicated that multiple electronic components produced by the company can all be applied in 5G area. Shenzhen Sunway Communication Co., Ltd. (300136.SZ) indicated that the company has developed 5G antenna array design applicable on cellphones and tablet computers. A patent just obtained by the company is about 5G antenna array covering both 37GHz and 39GHz. Sunway Communication also announced the establishment of Shenzhen Sunway Microelectronics Co., Ltd. in September, aiming to make arrangement in more promising radio frequency front-end components.
 
Broadex Technologies Co., Ltd. (300548.SZ) indicated that the connection of 5G base stations requires large amount of fiber optics and the support of new-type PON technology. It is foreseeable that in next five years, fiber optic transmission will always see short supply. Network structure in the future will see tighter connection of fiber optics and 5G.
 
As to chips, Unigroup Guoxin Co., Ltd. (002049.SZ) claimed that its SIM card chips will benefit from the commercial use of 5G. Materials show that HiSilicon Technologies Co., Ltd., Xiamen Unigroup Zhanrui Technology Co., Ltd. and Datang Telecom Technology Co., Ltd. (600198.SH) are actively making efforts in the R&D of 5G chips. Zhao Weiguo, president of Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd., hoped earlier that the company can develop its first 5G chip in 2019 or 2020. Besides chip design companies, chip packaging companies like Tianshui Huatian Technology Co., Ltd. (002185.SZ) will also benefit.
 
In the end, 5G will be applied in areas like high-definition video, the Internet of Things and driverless driving. TF Securities held that that the upgrading of bandwidth and speed will facilitate the popularization and development of video and streaming media business which consume great amount of flow. Live video, social media and streaming music are the main consumers of mobile flow. As to listed companies, Ningbo Gaofa Automotive Control System Co., Ltd. (603788.SH) has acquired Ningbo Yinzhou Xueliman Electronic Meter Co., Ltd. to integrate intelligent driving business. Companies like Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) Co., Ltd. (002355.SZ), Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp. (600699.SH) and Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co., Ltd. (601799.SH) are actively making arrangement in the Internet of Vehicles.

Translated by Adam Zhang and Jelly Yi
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