The most active corn contract for July delivery soared 23.25 cents, or 2.97 percent, to settle at 8.07 U.S. dollars per bushel. July wheat rose 24.25 cents, or 2.2 percent, to settle at 11.2875 dollars per bushel. July soybean climbed 28 cents, or 1.68 percent, to settle at 16.9325 dollars per bushel.
Corn and wheat have been the upside leaders on weather changes that occurred over the long holiday weekend. The dry forecast for Central Brazil and the U.S. Plains is of particular concern as the hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop enters the critical reproductive period. Weather in the next three weeks will be critical for the Plains wheat crop.
Meanwhile, the sinking of a Russian flagship ship ended peace talks and is causing retaliation from Russia. An end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict appears to be more distant. The length of the conflict will have a sizeable impact on CBOT price valuations going forward.
Corn has reached its highest price in a decade which has not produced large old crop sales. Rally on Monday is about new money coming into the CBOT and rising concerns about a lengthy Ukraine conflict and early seeding coolness. Chicago-based research company AgResource holds to a bullish view but warns against chasing this rally. With Russia-Ukraine conflict raging on, a bearish trend is not forecast.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) export inspection report showed that the United States exported 44.8 million bushels of corn, 35.7 million bushels of soybean and 15.9 million bushels of wheat in the past week. For respective crop years to date, the United States has shipped 1,306 million bushels of corn, down 16 percent; 2,028 million bushels of soybeans, down 17 percent; and 664 million bushels of wheat, down 18 percent.
U.S. ethanol industry is struggling with railcar availability and power to move production. The lack of railcars is starting to have a negative drag on daily runs ethanol production in the West Midwest.
Other than a few lite showers on Thursday, weather forecast for the Plains is arid, with near to above normal rain for the Missouri Valley. Temperatures will stay cool for another few days before warming in the weekend and then cooling again in the 11-15 days period. Corn seeding in West Midwest will get underway later this week and in the East Midwest on the weekend.
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