BANGKOK, July 30 (Xinhua) -- The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said here Tuesday that it expects Thai exports in 2019 to drop 0.6 percent year on year, the first contraction in four years.
Dr Aat Pisanwanich, Director of Center for International Trade Studies (CITS) of UTCC, said that total Thai exports this year are estimated to reach 251.338 billion U.S. dollars, 0.64 percent less than last year and the first contraction in four years.
However, Thai outbound shipments in the second half of this year will expand 1.6 percent, totaling 128.367 billion U.S. dollars, driven largely by the government's stimulus measures, said Dr Aat.
"To maintain export growth, the value of Thai exports in the remainder of this year must increase at least 2.9 percent per month, that is 21.664 U.S. billion dollars monthly," Dr Aat said.
The CITS director attributed the risk factors to a slowing global economy, BREXIT, a stronger Thai Baht currency and a possible minimum wage increase.
"Every one-percent increase in minimum wage will lower exports by 0.06 percent," said Dr Aat, "the proposed minimum wage hike to 400 per day is a 30 percent increase, which could lower Thai exports by 1.8 percent or by 4.524 billion U.S. dollars."
He said the Thai Baht has also strengthened, reaching 31.60 baht per U.S. dollar in the first half of this year.
He expects the Thai Baht to remain around 30-31 baht per U.S. dollar this year.
Dr Aat said the export items seriously affected by a strong Baht are automotive products, electronic parts, rubber and electrical appliances.
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