China's oil demand is expected to maintain low-speed growth of 2-3 percent and peak by 2030 due to weakening drive of economy over oil consumption, said Liu Zhaoquan, deputy head of CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute at the China Oil Reform and Development Forum held in Shanghai on November 26.
Increasing refining capacity in China would help oil demand maintain growing trend, said Liu.
He forecast that China's oil consumption would see average annual growth of 2.4 percent year-on-year during 2015-2020 to hit 608 million tonnes by 2020, and 1.1 percent year-on-year during 2020-2030 to hit 680 million tonnes by 2030.
Consumption of product oil is expected to continue low-speed growth with low pollution but higher quality.
Meanwhile, China would see higher growths of gasoline and kerosene consumption but lower growth of diesel consumption.
Liu believes that growth of gasoline consumption would step down in mid- and long-term.
Kerosene consumption would maintain fast growth thanks to robust aviation demand.
Diesel consumption has entered plateau phase on declining growth in bulk commodities demand and transportation demand in wake of the industrial transformation.
In future, China's would see ease supply of product oil and normalization of oil exports in large scale, especially diesel exports.
Besides, development of alternative energies such as natural gas and electricity would move faster, said Liu.
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